First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call Presentation
APRIL 29, 2021
Legal Disclaimer
This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding expected results, future commodity prices, future production targets, completion of natural gas or natural gas liquids transportation projects, future earnings, future capital spending plans, improved and/or increasing capital efficiency, continued utilization of existing infrastructure, gas marketability, estimated realized natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil prices, acreage quality, access to multiple gas markets, expected drilling and development plans (including the number, type, lateral length and location of wells to be drilled, the number and type of drilling rigs and the number of wells per pad), projected well costs and cost savings initiatives, future financial position, future technical improvements, future marketing and asset monetization opportunities, the amount and timing of any contingent payments, the participation level of our drilling partner and the financial and operational results to be achieved as a result of the drilling partnership, estimated Free Cash Flow and the key assumptions underlying its projection and AR's environmental goals are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Although AR believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Except as required by law, AR expressly disclaims any obligation to and does not intend to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties incident to the exploration for and the development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond AR's control. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, lack of availability of drilling and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, impacts of world health events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020.
Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and AR undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
This presentation also includes (i) Free Cash Flow, (ii) Adjusted EBITDAX, (iii) Net Debt and (iv) leverage which are a financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). Please see "Antero Non-GAAP Measures" for definitions of these measures as well as certain additional information regarding these measures.
Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as "AR" in the presentation and Antero Midstream Corporation is denoted
as "AM", which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols.
• |
Antero Resources | May 2019 Presentation |
2 |
Best Exposure to Rising Commodity Prices
Antero's differentiated business model provides the cleanest
upside to increasing commodity prices
Leverage to
Nymex Price
Increase
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
Peer 4
Peer 5
Liquids Pricing |
Flow |
Upside |
Assurance |
AR's FT portfolio
consistently aligns cash flow with Nymex pricing
~40% of Antero's revenue is derived from liquids - Primarily C3+NGLs and Oil
AR's FT portfolio fixes
basis and avoids shutting in volumes due to local basis blow out
Note: Peers include CNX, COG, EQT, RRC and SWN. |
3 |
FT Protects Basis and Provides Flow Assurance
AR's firm transportation portfolio provides price stability, production flow
assurance, and premium pricing vs. Appalachia-dependent producers
Antero Basis vs. Appalachia Basis ($/Mcf)
Appalachia Differentials (1) |
Antero Realized Differential (2) |
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Appalchian Average Basis |
Antero Average Basis |
|||||
$2.00 |
AR's 1Q21 realized price was a $0.41/Mcf |
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Since the beginning of 2018, AR had |
premiumto NYMEX vs. an average |
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Appalachian discountof ($0.51)/Mcf |
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access to its entire FT portfolio and |
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$1.50 |
has realized an average $0.11/Mcf |
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premium to NYMEX over that time |
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$1.00 |
AR |
||
+$0.11 |
|||
1Q21: |
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$0.50 |
+$0.41 |
||
$0.00 |
|||
Appalachia |
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($0.50) |
1Q21: |
||
($0.51) |
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($0.82) |
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($1.00) |
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($1.50) |
|||
($2.00) |
Antero Basis
- Low volatility, high reliability
- Premium to NYMEX
- "Insurance policy" for consistent production flow
- Ability to hedge NYMEX Henry Hub index
Appalachia Basis
- High volatility, low reliability
-
Significant discount to
NYMEX - Frequent shut-ins
- Less liquid hedge markets
Note: Pricing reflects pre-hedge pricing. |
4 |
1) |
Reflects discount to NYMEX for Appalachia in-basin pricing at Dominion South & TETCO M2 indices. |
2) |
Represents simple average discount to NYMEX for Antero firm transportation capacity. Includes BTU adjustment for 1100 BTU gas. |
Appalachian Takeaway Capacity is a Strategic Advantage
40
35
30
Bcf/d
25
20
15
10
With uncertainty on future pipeline projects in Appalachia, Antero is one of the few natural gas |
Differential |
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to NYMEX |
|||||||||||||||
producers in Appalachia that can take advantage of rising NYMEX natural gas prices without |
HH |
||||||||||||||
exposure to widening local basis and production shut-ins |
$0.80 |
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Basin Transport Capacity (1) |
Expected "Call" on Appalachia Production |
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Basin Dry Gas Production |
in order to meet U.S. Demand |
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Marketed Dry Gas Production Forecast (2) |
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Blended Appalachian Differential to NYMEX |
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MVP (2.0 Bcf/d) |
$0.30 |
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Appalachian Basis "Blowout" |
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Potential Future Capacity |
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4/27/20 Strip Pricing Differential |
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4/27/21 Strip Pricing Differential |
($0.20) |
||||||||||||||
($0.70)
($1.20) |
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Appalachian differentials |
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have widened |
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Current |
~$0.30/MMBtu from a year |
|||
ago due to uncertainty of |
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Basin |
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future takeaway projects |
($1.70) |
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Takeaway |
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Capacity
(33 Bcf/d)
($2.20)
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Source: S&P Global Platts. In-basin differentials represent an average of TETCO M2 and DOM S differentials to NYMEX Henry Hub. Actuals through March 2021 and 4/27/2021 strip pricing thereafter. |
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1) |
Basin capacity based on pipeline flow data scrapes. |
5 |
2) |
Production forecast and Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) In-Service date (1Q 2022) based on Platt's estimates. |
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Antero Resources Corporation published this content on 29 April 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 29 April 2021 15:05:25 UTC.